{"id":3095,"date":"2016-05-13T08:43:57","date_gmt":"2016-05-13T12:43:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/1406.ise.ncsu.edu\/?p=3095"},"modified":"2016-05-13T08:43:57","modified_gmt":"2016-05-13T12:43:57","slug":"predicting-nfls-future","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/webpublishing.oit.ncsu.edu\/ise-ncsu-edu\/2016\/05\/13\/predicting-nfls-future\/","title":{"rendered":"Predicting the NFL’s Future"},"content":{"rendered":"

ISE\u2019s Will Burton travels to Super Bowl 50 to talk with a national audience about his statistical model that predicts NFL plays with shocking\u00a0accuracy<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

The 2014 Super Bowl ended on one of the most controversial plays in NFL history. Well, at least according to armchair quarterbacks around the world. You may recall the Seattle Seahawks marched down to New England\u2019s one yard line with only seconds remaining. With one of the best power running backs in the game, Marshawn Lynch, the Seahawks were sure to give him the ball and let him hammer his way into the end zone.<\/p>\n

To almost everyone\u2019s surprise, they threw the ball. The Patriots intercepted it and won the Super Bowl. One person not surprised was ISE\u2019s senior Will Burton. How did Burton know? His model told\u00a0him.<\/p>\n

Burton, along with another NC State student Michael Dickey, developed a simulation model that predicts whether an NFL team will run or pass with surprising accuracy.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe were interested in building something we could use during a game,\u201d Burton explained. \u201cWe wanted to see if we could predict the next\u00a0play.\u201d<\/p>\n

The model factors in many of the stats the average armchair QB might expect, like down and distance to go, time on the clock, point differential and turnovers. Burton believes those are the right mix of stats combined with historical data that has made his model so accurate. How accurate? It predicts run or pass correctly about 75 percent of the time. In some games last year, the model got it right over 90 percent of the time. \u201cThe model was built for general consumption,\u201d Burton said. \u201cIf it was built for a specific team, I could get a lot more accurate.\u201d<\/p>\n

Burton\u2019s model was impressive enough to get him an invitation to the 2015 Joint Statistical Meetings in Seattle last fall and then onto Media Row at Super Bowl 50 this\u00a0February.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe were looking for an analytical project last summer,\u201d Will told the Adam and Joe Show. \u201cWe looked through all the possibilities and thought \u2018Football: Pass or Run\u2019 would be a cool\u00a0thing.\u201d<\/p>\n

One of the exciting ideas Burton discussed was the possibility of using his algorithm to enhance TV\u2019s coverage of games much like professional poker. \u201cIt would be a cool add-on,\u201d Burton continued. \u201cImagine if they could tell viewers there was a 70 percent chance the next play was a run?\u201d<\/p>\n

Just before the Super Bowl this February, Burton\u2019s model was featured in a Sports Illustrated article. He continued his media rounds during Super Bowl week which included several interviews with national sports outlets like CBS Sports Radio. He also made some new friends along the way like Betty Cantrell, the reigning Miss America.<\/p>\n

So of course, everyone wanted a prediction for this year\u2019s big game. \u201cIf the Panthers get the ball, they are going to start out with a run,\u201d predicted Burton. \u201cIf the Broncos get the ball, they are going to start out with a pass.\u201d The Broncos received the opening kick-off and they started out with … A PASS.<\/p>\n

Watch Burton’s trip to the Super Bowl<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false,"raw":"

ISE\u2019s Will Burton travels to Super Bowl 50 to talk with a national audience about his statistical model that predicts NFL plays with shocking\u00a0accuracy<\/blockquote>\n\nThe 2014 Super Bowl ended on one of the most controversial plays in NFL history. Well, at least according to armchair quarterbacks around the world. You may recall the Seattle Seahawks marched down to New England\u2019s one yard line with only seconds remaining. With one of the best power running backs in the game, Marshawn Lynch, the Seahawks were sure to give him the ball and let him hammer his way into the end zone.\n\nTo almost everyone\u2019s surprise, they threw the ball. The Patriots intercepted it and won the Super Bowl. One person not surprised was ISE\u2019s senior Will Burton. How did Burton know? His model told\u00a0him.\n\nBurton, along with another NC State student Michael Dickey, developed a simulation model that predicts whether an NFL team will run or pass with surprising accuracy.\n\n\u201cWe were interested in building something we could use during a game,\u201d Burton explained. \u201cWe wanted to see if we could predict the next\u00a0play.\u201d\n\nThe model factors in many of the stats the average armchair QB might expect, like down and distance to go, time on the clock, point differential and turnovers. Burton believes those are the right mix of stats combined with historical data that has made his model so accurate. How accurate? It predicts run or pass correctly about 75 percent of the time. In some games last year, the model got it right over 90 percent of the time. \u201cThe model was built for general consumption,\u201d Burton said. \u201cIf it was built for a specific team, I could get a lot more accurate.\u201d\n\nBurton\u2019s model was impressive enough to get him an invitation to the 2015 Joint Statistical Meetings in Seattle last fall and then onto Media Row at Super Bowl 50 this\u00a0February.\n\n\u201cWe were looking for an analytical project last summer,\u201d Will told the Adam and Joe Show. \u201cWe looked through all the possibilities and thought \u2018Football: Pass or Run\u2019 would be a cool\u00a0thing.\u201d\n\nOne of the exciting ideas Burton discussed was the possibility of using his algorithm to enhance TV\u2019s coverage of games much like professional poker. \u201cIt would be a cool add-on,\u201d Burton continued. \u201cImagine if they could tell viewers there was a 70 percent chance the next play was a run?\u201d\n\nJust before the Super Bowl this February, Burton\u2019s model was featured in a Sports Illustrated article. He continued his media rounds during Super Bowl week which included several interviews with national sports outlets like CBS Sports Radio. He also made some new friends along the way like Betty Cantrell, the reigning Miss America.\n\nSo of course, everyone wanted a prediction for this year\u2019s big game. \u201cIf the Panthers get the ball, they are going to start out with a run,\u201d predicted Burton. \u201cIf the Broncos get the ball, they are going to start out with a pass.\u201d The Broncos received the opening kick-off and they started out with ... A PASS.\n\nWatch Burton's trip to the Super Bowl<\/a>"},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

ISE\u2019s Will Burton travels to Super Bowl 50 to talk with a national audience about his statistical model that predicts NFL plays with shocking\u00a0accuracy The 2014 Super Bowl ended on…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":3096,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"source":"","ncst_custom_author":"","ncst_show_custom_author":false,"ncst_dynamicHeaderBlockName":"","ncst_dynamicHeaderData":"","ncst_content_audit_freq":"","ncst_content_audit_date":"","ncst_content_audit_display":false,"ncst_backToTopFlag":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[878,879,880,881,882],"_ncst_magazine_issue":[],"class_list":["post-3095","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-nfl","tag-plays","tag-prediction-model","tag-super-bowl-50","tag-will-burton"],"displayCategory":null,"acf":{"ncst_posts_meta_modified_date":null},"yoast_head":"\nPredicting the NFL's Future | ISE Development<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link 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